Application for herd total production forecast based on the solutions from the national test day evaluations

Abstract Text: Tuottoennuste (Yieldcast) production forecast utility provides yield predictions for each animal in a dairy herd for the year ahead. Predictions are calculated by using solutions from Nordic test-day model and the most recent available cow information. Predictions are made available as monhtly totals for all herds participating the national milk recording. Predictions are used for management purposes at herds and by milk processors. The objective of our study was to evaluate how accurate are the predictions in the herd level and in the level of dairy company. The forecasted total herd production was 2-10% lower than total milk received by dairy company. Main reason for the variation was in herd management level prediction, which was unable to predict changes occurred in herd management level in summer 2013. The correlation between estimated and true herd management levels varied  between 0.72 – 0.87.

Keywords: Dairy herd management, production forecast, test-day model