Relationships Between Beef Bull Sale Prices and Feeder Calf Price in Virginia

In recent years, fluctuations in beef cattle prices have resulted in uncertainty among beef producers regarding value of seedstock cattle. A relationship between feeder cattle prices and bull prices would allow producers to more accurately estimate the value of their breeding stock. Monthly averages from Virginia feeder calf sales between January 2006 and December 2016 were utilized. Feeder steer (FdSt) and heifer prices (FdHf, Med and Large 1, CWT) were reflective of 227-273 kg calves. Prices for 364-409 kg steers were utilized to represent backgrounded steer (BkSt) prices. Corresponding bull prices (per head) from annual Virginia Beef Cattle Improvement Association bull test sales held in March and December were obtained. Regression analysis (PROC REG) in SAS (SAS Institute Inc., Cary, NC) was utilized to determine relationships between calf prices and corresponding bull sale averages. FdSt prices were highly associated to FdHf (r² = 0.99, P < 0.0001) and BkSt prices (r² = 0.96, P < 0.0001). FdSt and bull value was highly correlated over the 11-yr period (r² = 0.91, P < 0.0001). Bulls were valued approximately 18 * (FdSt) or 3.27 * (FdSt per head). FdHf were valued less than FdSt and had a greater regression coefficient (B₁ = 19.5, 3.5 * (FdHf per head)) when compared to bull prices and remained highly correlated (r² = 0.89, P < 0.0001). Bulls were worth approximately 24 * (BkSt) or 2.8 * (BkSt per head) and there remained a strong relationship between these prices (r² = 0.90, P < 0.0001). Angus bull prices were more sensitive to changes in FdSt prices (B₁ = 18.0, P < 0.0001) compared to Simmental and Simmental hybrid prices (B₁ = 15.7, P < 0.05 and 17.5, P < 0.001; respectively). Compared to Simmental and Simmental hybrid prices, Angus bull value was more strongly associated with FdSt prices (r² = 0.37 and 0.61 vs. 0.91, respectively). Bulls that commanded prices in the top third of their respective sale had prices most volatile to changes in FdSt price (B₁ = 24.5, P < 0.0001). Correspondingly, bulls that sold in the lowest third were least volatile (B₁ = 12.7, P < 0.0001), those valued in the middle third were intermediate (B₁ = 16.8, P < 0.0001). Bull sale prices are highly correlated with feeder calf value. These models provide predictive opportunities for beef cattle producers to estimate seedstock value based on current feeder cattle market conditions.