Africa Livestock Futures and One Health

Abstract Text: The current trend of a rapid increase in the demand for animal products in Africa is not yet matched by a similar trend of increased production.  The increase in demand will grow in the next three decades - at least. There will be efforts to produce more animal products to fulfill the demand. At the same time, livestock are critical to people’s nutrition, food security, livelihoods and resilience in many parts of Africa.  There would be widespread benefits if marginal farmers were to be able to respond to (and profit from) the increased demand.  An unmanaged increase in production, as witnessed in Asia between 1960 and 2000, could bring adverse consequences, including pressure on natural resources such as water and land, increased greenhouse gas emissions, and increased threats of zoonotic diseases.  If animal-derived pathogens are readily transmissible between humans and cause illnesses with high fatality rates, serious outbreaks – or even pandemics – will occur.  This session will examine work underway to assess options for livestock futures in Africa based on plausible assumptions of growth through 2050 of (a) consumption of animal origin foods, and (b) in the production of livestock and products (ie both demand and supply sides), (c) possible consequences and risks of the different scenarios and (d) policy options that could, if applied, reduce or mitigate the potential adverse consequences of each scenario.

Keywords: Africa, food security, livestock